Verdict

  • GW7

Manzambi or Tavernier to replace Szoboszlai

Szoboszlai was going. The 50/50 was who came in: Villa's breakout midfielder or Bournemouth's ever-present.

Published · Updated with result

Flipped live on FPL Shrine on 16 October, before the GW7 deadline (Saturday 17 October, 11:00 UK time). One flip, recorded, never re-rolled.

We went into GW7 with five free transfers, the most FPL lets you save, so we had to make at least one or lose it. Szoboszlai's hamstring decided who was leaving. FPL dropped him to a 25% chance of playing on Friday morning, Liverpool were still calling it a late decision, and hundreds of thousands of managers had already sold him. Selling him was the easy part. Picking his replacement wasn't.

Flip 1 · TransferManzambi or Tavernier?

The dilemma

Szoboszlai out, and either Manzambi (Aston Villa, £5.9m) or Tavernier (Bournemouth, £6.1m) in. Whoever came in would start GW7 on our bench behind Barry, so this was about the next few weeks rather than this weekend. One looks like Villa's next big thing; the other has started every game this season.

The case for Manzambi

  • 0.68 expected goal involvements (xGI) per 90 minutes, well ahead of Tavernier's 0.48.
  • 18 points from his two league starts: 13 at Spurs in GW5, then 5 at home to Brentford.
  • He scored on his Champions League debut, on his 21st birthday, in Villa's 6–0 win over Fenerbahçe, and was named man of the match.
  • £0.2m cheaper, leaving about £1.0m in the bank for the next move.
  • Only 1.3% of managers own him, so every return gains on almost everyone.
  • Next five: Newcastle (A), Man City (H), Fulham (H), Man Utd (A), Sunderland (H).

The case for Tavernier

  • Six starts from six. Minutes are the one thing Manzambi can't promise yet.
  • Three goals, 32 points (5.3 per game) and 8 bonus points, against Manzambi's 2.
  • He's shown he can score big: 10 points at Man City in GW1 and 10 at Newcastle in GW3.
  • Next five: Sunderland (H), Man Utd (A), Leeds (H), Ipswich (A), Forest (H).

Why it was genuinely 50/50

Each one's strength is the other's weakness. Manzambi has the better numbers but only two league starts all season, and with Villa in the Champions League, nobody can promise he'll keep his place. Tavernier has the minutes, but his form is fading: 2 points and then 1 in his last two games, and subbed off after 74 and 72 minutes. Their fixtures don't separate them either. Both go to Old Trafford, Manzambi also has Man City at home, and Tavernier has Leeds, who have conceded the joint-fewest goals so far.

The flip

  • Coin's pick Manzambi Aston Villa at Newcastle (A)
  • Tavernier Bournemouth v Sunderland (H)

The coin said Manzambi

The live flip for Szoboszlai's replacement, Manzambi or Tavernier, recorded on FPL Shrine on 16 October. No sound. The coin lands on A and the result reads "Bring in Johan Manzambi".

See this flip on FPL Shrine

What happened

They both scored. Manzambi got the only goal at Newcastle on Saturday evening and took all 3 bonus points: 11 points in 71 minutes. Tavernier scored in Bournemouth's 2–0 win over Sunderland on Sunday and picked up 2 bonus: 10 points. So the coin's pick won by a point.

The catch: Manzambi's 11 came on our bench. All eleven of our starters played, so there was no auto-sub. Starting Barry ahead of him was our call, not the coin's, and Barry got 2. Szoboszlai, for the record, started at Brentford but lasted only 31 minutes and scored 1. FPL now lists his hamstring injury with no return date.

GameweekManzambi (coin's pick)Tavernier
GW71110
GW8110
GW973
Total so far1923

Squad moves like this play out over weeks, so they stay out of the right-or-wrong count. We'll update the running total as the season goes on.

The verdict Long-term call

Tavernier leads 23 to 19 after three weeks, but Manzambi won GW9, 7 to 3. The coin turned him down here, then picked him to replace Saka in GW8 (see that Verdict), so we now own both.

What we didn't flip

The coin is for genuine 50/50s, so it stayed in our pocket for these two:

  • Captain: Haaland. He had Ipswich at home, one of four sides yet to keep a clean sheet, with 12 goals conceded in six games. Every creator we checked planned to captain him, and he's in three in four teams, so captaining anyone else was a risk we didn't need. Groß, at home to Palace, was the only other real option. Haaland scored twice for 13 points (26 as captain); Groß got 5.
  • Who to sell: Szoboszlai, not N.Williams. N.Williams has been poor, with 3.3 points a game, but he's fit and has played every minute. Szoboszlai probably wouldn't play this week and his price was falling. That's next week's job, and it already looks like a 50/50: Van Hecke or Muharemović.

What some well-known managers did

Every one of them captained Haaland, as we did, and his two goals made that worth 26 points. Let's Talk FPL and FPL Mate kept Szoboszlai, who managed 1 point. Ben Crellin played his Wildcard.

ManagerCaptainOwned SzoboszlaiGW7 points
Let's Talk FPLHaalandYes80
PrasHaalandNo80
Ben CrellinHaalandNo75
FPL FocalHaalandNo70
FPL MateHaalandYes61

From public FPL team data. Links open X in a new tab. These managers have no connection with FPL Shrine and are mentioned for comparison only.

GW7 in summary

  • 65Our GW7 points
  • 59FPL average
  • 122,358Our overall rank

Above average, but our rank still slipped from 68,294 to 122,358. Haaland's 26 as captain and Konsa's 9 did most of the work, and six of our starters managed 3 or fewer. Manzambi (11) and N.Williams (3) left 14 points on the bench. After seven gameweeks we've scored 519 against an FPL average of 416.

The Coin's record

  • 1Right
  • 5Wrong
  • 1Level
  • 5Long-term calls

After GW7. This week's flip is a squad move, so it joins the long-term calls rather than the right-or-wrong count. A head-to-head flip counts as right if the coin's pick outscored the other option, wrong if not, and level if they tied. Long-term calls (chip timing, and squad moves like this one) play out over weeks, so we report what they've returned but leave them out of the right-or-wrong count. GW1 to GW5 were flipped pre-launch. See every Verdict.

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