Season Verdict
Wildcard, Palmer or João Pedro, and which keeper?
Our busiest week: three flips, one rebuilt team.
Published · Updated with result
Flipped before the GW4 deadline with a coin app, before FPL Shrine existed. Each call was flipped once and never re-rolled, and the screenshots below are the originals.
GW4 was our busiest week of the season. Should we Wildcard? If so, which of our two keepers should we keep? And who should captain from Chelsea's home game against Hull? Three 50/50s, three flips, in the order we made them.
Flip 1 · ChipWildcard now, or wait?
The dilemma
Wildcard now and rebuild the team, or keep patching it with free transfers.
The case for Wildcard now
- Bruno had blanked in two of three games, and Sangaré had 4 points in two weeks.
- This was the week Palmer and Morgan Rogers became the key buys.
The case for waiting
- A three-week international break came after GW5. Some managers were holding their Wildcard for it, to rebuild with more information.
Why it was genuinely 50/50
Rebuild now while the problems are fresh, or wait two weeks and know more. Both are standard advice.
The flip
The coin said Wildcard
What happened
Out went Bruno, Van Dijk, Maguire, Tzolis, Sangaré, Calvert-Lewin, Rodon, Davis and Verbruggen. In came Palmer, Saka, Rogers, Konsa, De Cuyper, Neco Williams, Mendy, Barry and Lecomte. We scored 97 against an average of 69, and our overall rank jumped from 298,697 to 95,878. 760,682 managers played a Wildcard that week, the most of the season so far.
| New starter | GW4 points |
|---|---|
| De Cuyper | 11 |
| Palmer (captain) | 10 |
| Saka | 8 |
| Rogers | 8 |
| Konsa | 6 |
Chip-timing flips stay out of the right-or-wrong count, because the other option, playing it later, can't be scored yet.
97 points and a jump of more than 200,000 places. A good first week for the new team.
Flip 2 · GoalkeeperKeep Kinsky or Verbruggen?
The dilemma
On the Wildcard we only wanted one of our two keepers. Keep Kinsky (Spurs, home to Everton) or Verbruggen (Brighton, away at Coventry)? The other would be sold for a cheap backup who wasn't expected to play, so whichever we kept would be our starting keeper for the long run.
The case for Kinsky
- A clean sheet at Forest in GW3.
- A home game against Everton.
The case for Verbruggen
- Brighton were playing Coventry, who still hadn't won.
Why it was genuinely 50/50
Both cost £4.5m, and both had exactly 9 points from three games.
The flip
The coin said keep Kinsky
What happened
In GW4, Spurs drew 0–0 with Everton: a clean sheet and 7 points for Kinsky. Brighton won 5–0 at Coventry and Verbruggen took 8. But this wasn't a one-week call. The keeper we kept is our starter for the weeks ahead, so we're tracking both from the flip onwards.
| Gameweek | Kinsky (coin's pick) | Verbruggen |
|---|---|---|
| GW4 | 7 | 8 |
| GW5 | 2 | 6 |
| GW6 | 3 | 9 |
| GW7 | 2 | 6 |
| Final total | 14 | 29 |
Squad moves like this play out over weeks, so they stay out of the right-or-wrong count. We sold Kinsky for Raya before GW8, so this call is now closed.
Verbruggen won it, 29 points to 14 over four weeks. We sold Kinsky before GW8, and he kept a clean sheet at Chelsea that weekend. Of course he did.
Flip 3 · CaptainPalmer or João Pedro?
The dilemma
Two Chelsea players, the same home game against Hull, who hadn't conceded yet. Palmer cost £9.7m and João Pedro £7.7m. We owned both, so this was about the armband.
The case for Palmer
- Penalties.
- As a midfielder he gets more points for a goal.
The case for João Pedro
- More chances.
- A full midweek rest, while Palmer played 45 minutes in the cup.
- He had scored in both GW1 and GW2.
Why it was genuinely 50/50
AllAboutFPL's poll had Palmer on 29% and João Pedro on 28%. Team-mates in the same match, a single point apart. Some models (RotoWire, FPL Copilot) ranked both above Haaland that week.
The flip
The coin said Palmer
What happened
Chelsea drew 2–2 with Hull. João Pedro scored and assisted for 12. Palmer got an assist and 5. João Pedro was our vice-captain, so his 12 counted once, not twice.
| Option | GW4 points | As captain |
|---|---|---|
| Palmer (coin's pick) | 5 | 10 |
| João Pedro | 12 | 24 |
The coin picked the 5, not the 12. More than a million managers did the same.
What some well-known managers did
All five captained Palmer, four of them with Triple Captain, so the coin was in good company. Our 97 would have ranked fourth among them.
| Manager | Chip | Captain | GW4 points |
|---|---|---|---|
| FPL Focal | Triple Captain | Palmer | 105 |
| Let's Talk FPL | Triple Captain | Palmer | 103 |
| Pras | Triple Captain | Palmer | 103 |
| FPL Mate | Wildcard | Palmer | 93 |
| Ben Crellin | Triple Captain | Palmer | 90 |
From public FPL team data. Links open X in a new tab. These managers have no connection with FPL Shrine and are mentioned for comparison only.
GW4 in summary
- 97Our GW4 points
- 69FPL average
- 95,878Our overall rank
Our best week so far, even with the captaincy flip going against the coin. Groß, already in the team, scored 17. João Pedro added 12 and Haaland 9.
The Coin's record
- 1Right
- 3Wrong
- 1Level
- 4Long-term calls
After GW4. A head-to-head flip counts as right if the coin's pick outscored the other option, wrong if not, and level if they tied. For a bench call, the coin's pick is the player it benched, so it's right if that player scored less. Long-term calls (chip timing, and squad moves like which keeper to keep) play out over weeks, so we report what they've returned but leave them out of the right-or-wrong count. All GW1 to GW5 flips are pre-launch. See every Verdict.
More Verdicts
Sources
- Official FPL data: fixtures, player points, prices, ownership, our team's and the managers' public team data, chip counts and averages.
- Top FPL Gameweek 4 captain picks (AllAboutFPL)
- Triple Captain Palmer in FPL Gameweek 4? The pros + cons (Fantasy Football Scout)
- FPL Gameweek 4 Rankings (RotoWire)
- Mixed fortunes for top FPL captain picks in Gameweek 4 (Premier League)
- How 'The Great and The Good' did in FPL Gameweek 4 (Fantasy Football Scout)