Verdict

  • GW9

Jackson or Evanilson, and Van Hecke or Silva

João Pedro was out for weeks, and our fifth defender wasn't pulling his weight. Two transfers, two 50/50s, two flips.

Published · Updated with result

Both flipped live on FPL Shrine on 30 October, before the GW9 deadline (Saturday 31 October, 11:00 UK time). One flip each, recorded, never re-rolled.

João Pedro's thigh decided the first one. Alonso said he'd be "out for a few weeks", and asked whether that meant until after the international break, he said: "Probably." More than two million managers sold him this week. With the money from his sale and £2.7m in the bank, we had about £10.5m for a forward. We also had spare free transfers, so we used one on the bench as well.

Flip 1 · TransferJackson or Evanilson?

The dilemma

João Pedro out, and either Nicolas Jackson (Aston Villa, £6.8m) or Evanilson (Bournemouth, £6.3m) in. We looked at Isak too, but more on him below. These two were the cheap forwards most managers were choosing between, and FPL Harry called them "head and shoulders above the rest".

The case for Jackson

  • The form pick: two goals and 13 points against Manchester City last week, and four goals this season.
  • A kind run: Fulham (H), Man Utd (A), Sunderland (H), Ipswich (A) and Everton (H).
  • Fresh legs. He sat out Villa's Carabao Cup defeat at Bournemouth on Wednesday, and Emery said "normally yes, they will play against Fulham" (as reported by FPL Raptor).
  • FPL lists him second on Villa's penalties.
  • The crowd's choice: bought by more than 1.6 million managers this week. FPL Harry ranks him above Evanilson, and FPL Mate has already made the move.

The case for Evanilson

  • More points (43 to Jackson's 34) from three goals and four assists, and the better underlying numbers: 0.54 expected goal involvements (xGI) per 90 minutes to Jackson's 0.44.
  • At least 74 minutes in every game this season. Jackson has had a 45-minute game and a week when he didn't play at all.
  • Bournemouth are flying: 14 goals scored and none conceded in their last five games in all competitions (FPL Focal), including that 3–0 cup win over Villa with eight changes.
  • The run is just as good: Leeds (H), Ipswich (A), Forest (H), Fulham (A) and Brighton (H).
  • £0.5m cheaper, and in fewer teams: 12.7% to Jackson's 20.1%.

Why it was genuinely 50/50

Jackson has the form and the crowd; Evanilson has the minutes, the team form and the price. FPL Raptor pointed out that Jackson has the weakest underlying numbers of the cheap forwards, "but he is in form". Ben Crellin put his own choice to a poll, with both in it. The one thing against Evanilson for us: he'd be our second Bournemouth player, with Tavernier. Nothing in it, so we let the coin decide.

The flip

  • Jackson Aston Villa v Fulham (H)
  • Coin's pick Evanilson Bournemouth v Leeds (H)

The coin said Evanilson

The live flip for João Pedro's replacement, Jackson or Evanilson, recorded on FPL Shrine on 30 October. No sound. The coin lands on B and the result reads "Bring in Evanilson".

See this flip on FPL Shrine

What happened

Evanilson went straight into our XI and scored in Bournemouth's 2–0 win over Leeds, with 3 bonus points: 9 points in 75 minutes. Jackson scored in Villa's 1–1 draw with Fulham, also with 3 bonus points: 9 points in 90 minutes. Same goals, same bonus, same total.

GameweekEvanilson (coin's pick)Jackson
GW999
Total so far99

A call for the day and for the long term. Evanilson went straight into our XI, so GW9 counts as a head-to-head. It's also a squad move, so we'll keep updating the running total as the season goes on.

The verdict Level

9 points each. More than a million managers went for Jackson, and the coin's pick kept pace for £0.5m less. Nothing in it, just as we said.

Flip 2 · TransferVan Hecke or Silva?

The dilemma

N.Williams out, and either Van Hecke (Spurs, £4.9m) or António Silva (Bournemouth, £5.0m) in. Williams is fit again and scored last week, but Forest's next three are Brentford (A), Man City (H) and Bournemouth (A). With free transfers to spare, a cheap defender with a better run looked like the smarter use of one.

The case for Van Hecke

  • More points: 38 to Silva's 29, with three clean sheets and a goal.
  • Spurs have just kept a clean sheet at Chelsea, and the next five are Palace (H), Leeds (A), Ipswich (H), Sunderland (A) and Fulham (H).
  • Spurs aren't in Europe, so there's less reason to rotate him. That's why FPL Harry slightly prefers him.
  • £0.1m cheaper, and keeps us at two Bournemouth players.

The case for Silva

  • The steadier floor: he's reached the 10 defensive contributions (blocks, tackles, interceptions and clearances) that earn a defender 2 extra FPL points in six of eight games. Van Hecke has done it three times.
  • More attacking threat, with 0.16 expected goals per 90 to Van Hecke's 0.09.
  • The same Bournemouth run as Evanilson, and a defence that hasn't conceded in five games.
  • The creators' favourite: FPL Raptor called him "arguably the best buy in FPL right now", FPL Mate has bought him, and he's in fewer than one team in fifty.

Why it was genuinely 50/50

FPL Harry called the cheap defenders "pretty difficult to split", and he's right. Van Hecke has the clean sheets and the points; Silva has the defensive-contribution floor and the momentum. Raptor thinks Van Hecke "isn't far off" Silva. There's a squad wrinkle too: with Evanilson already in, Silva would make three Bournemouth players, the most FPL allows. That's not a rule against it, just a lot riding on one team. So we flipped the forward first, then this.

The flip

  • Coin's pick Van Hecke Spurs v Palace (H)
  • Silva Bournemouth v Leeds (H)

The coin said Van Hecke

The live flip for N.Williams' replacement, Van Hecke or Silva, recorded on FPL Shrine on 30 October. No sound. The coin lands on A and the result reads "Bring in Jan Paul van Hecke".

See this flip on FPL Shrine

What happened

Van Hecke went straight into our XI, scored in Spurs' 2–0 win over Palace, kept a clean sheet and took 3 bonus points: 15 points, our top scorer of the week. Silva kept a clean sheet against Leeds and got 2 bonus points for 8. He made 9 defensive contributions, one short of the 2 extra points.

GameweekVan Hecke (coin's pick)Silva
GW9158
Total so far158

Another call for the day and for the long term: Van Hecke started, so GW9 counts as a head-to-head, and we'll keep updating the running total.

The verdict Right

15 points to 8. A defender we bought for the bench ended up top-scoring in our team. The coin will take that.

What we didn't flip

The coin is for genuine 50/50s, so it stayed in our pocket for these:

  • Isak. We could afford him, and he has more than twice Jackson's expected goals per 90. But he plays Arsenal on Sunday, and we have three Arsenal defenders. Every Isak goal would cost all three their clean sheet. Not this week. Arsenal won 1–0 at Anfield, Isak got 2 points, and all three of ours kept a clean sheet.
  • Calafiori: keep. He was a doubt with a hip problem, but Arteta was unusually clear on Friday: "They all trained today. They will train tomorrow and if everything is okay, they will be available." He played the full 90 and kept a clean sheet: 6 points.
  • Captain: Haaland. Brighton at home, rested for City's cup tie in midweek, and in nearly four in five teams. Nobody serious was torn. City lost 1–0 and Haaland got 2 points (4 as captain).
    If you were one of the many who handed Haaland the armband this week, you're in good company. Every creator we track did too. We made a jumper about it: Captained a Turkey. Use code FIRSTDROP for 15% off until Sunday 8 November.

The Coin's record

  • 3Right
  • 5Wrong
  • 2Level
  • 5Long-term calls

After GW9. Both of this week's new players went straight into our XI, so both flips count on the day: one right, one level. A head-to-head flip counts as right if the coin's pick outscored the other option, wrong if not, and level if they tied. A transfer whose new player goes straight into our team that week counts as a head-to-head too, and we keep tracking its running total on the post. Other long-term calls (chip timing, and squad moves where the new player didn't go straight into our team) play out over weeks, so we report what they've returned but leave them out of the right-or-wrong count. GW1 to GW5 were flipped pre-launch. See every Verdict.

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